Here we will look at a major flaw in the way in which we think; in fact many psychologists believe that the human brain is wired up to think in this flawed way and that it relates to basic survival instincts dating back to pre-historic times. It relates to how sometimes we imagine there to be patterns in events when in reality there are none.
Again we will illustrate this with an example. Consider the following sequence of numbers: 4, 6, 8. This sequence is generated by a rule and your task is to decide on that rule and then choose additional number sequences and consider whether or not they conform to that rule.
Most people’s first guess is that the rule is to add 2 to the previous number and as an example will give something like 14, 16, 18 to demonstrate that they are correct.
However, in doing this they have chosen a sequence of numbers which is simply a restatement of their hypothesis. In order to test a theory (or hypothesis) is to devise a test that attempts to disprove it.
The real rule underlying the above sequence is simply any three numbers in ascending order, which is the simplest possible rule for the sequence. The tendency however is to add layers of complexity when none are necessary and by far the majority of people do it. In fact we are even encouraged to think that way in school. In many intelligence tests the question is to find the next number in the sequence with 10 being the answer that receives a tick, however any number greater than 8 is correct.
The danger in thinking in this erroneous way is that we are vulnerable to thinking that sequences exist when in reality they do not, particularly when you play games such as roulette. Always seek out the simplest possible rule, and in roulette that is that every spin is a random event.